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Insight Paper

The Future of College Graduates in the AI Workforce

Four Plausible Scenarios to Inform Strategic Planning and Student Success

AI is reshaping entry-level work, making the path from degree to first job much harder to predict. As employers automate junior tasks and trim entry-level roles, even once-reliable career pathways are becoming uncertain. The skills and experiences graduates need to compete are shifting fast—and higher education leaders need a practical way to prepare students for this evolving landscape.

This paper uses foresight methodology to outline four plausible futures for early-career work over the next five to 10 years. Each scenario includes clear implications for how institutions support students—from advising and career services to experiential learning and alumni engagement. It also breaks down what drivers are shaping the entry-level labor market, so you know what signals to watch as conditions change.

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By reading this paper, you will:

  • Understand the forces shaping post-graduation outcomes and early career success
  • See how different AI adoption and workforce disruption scenarios could change the risks, and opportunities, for student success
  • Learn the 10 “no-regrets” strategies that strengthen post-graduation success across any future
  • Access a “Futures Workshop” agenda and discussion guide to align your leadership team, assess which scenario is most likely to emerge on your campus, and prioritize next steps

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