Challenges from the COVID-19 crisis and subsequent economic turmoil have threatened enrollment and retention at independent schools across the country. Schools everywhere face uncertainty about whether families will re-enroll amid increasing financial strain and historic unemployment rates. To be able to conduct scenario planning amid this uncertainty, independent schools should use employment data to more accurately project enrollment trends in the months ahead.
Step 1: Collect employment data for current familiesWhere do current families work?
To begin, collect employment data from all currently enrolled families at your school. For some schools, this data already lives in your student information system. For others, this first step will require a heavier initial lift.
Step 2: Determine low, medium, and high-risk industriesWhich industries are at greatest risk of being affected by the COVID recession?
You will need to consider both regional and national employment trends to determine which industries are low, medium, and high-risk for being impacted by the recession in your area. The risk to jobs by industry will vary based on geographic location, as COVID has affected regions in different ways.
Step 3: Project enrollment scenarios based on employment dataHow could different employment scenarios impact enrollment and financial aid?
Next, overlay family employment data with the applicable employment industry trends to play out different scenarios. These projections can be used to predict best-, medium-, and…