College Search Trends Across Space and Time: 2026 Edition

In this paper, we present updated research with the most recent data on first-time undergraduates at four-year institutions. Among the findings:

• The demographic cliff has arrived, but regional trajectories differ. Every region is projected to lose college-age population through 2031, but the Southeast and Southwest may stabilize closer to recent levels while the Midwest, Northeast, and West settle into lower baselines.
• Students are inquiring earlier and at distinct moments throughout high school. Growing sophomore-year activity gives institutions a longer runway to build interest, even as the largest share of inquiries still arrives early in senior year.
• High application growth is now the competitive baseline. The average school that grew enrollment from 2019 to 2024 needed about 22% application growth to secure only 4% enrollment growth in that period.
• The enrollment recovery is real, but concentrated. Most regions have surpassed pre-pandemic enrollment levels, yet gains remain concentrated among larger institutions while smaller schools are flat or declining in many regions.
• Student mobility is normalizing, but reach markets are still expanding. In-state enrollment has partly rebounded from pandemic-era lows, while most states continue to attract more students traveling 500 miles or farther.