3 key findings from our new analysis of graduate and online enrollments

Each year, our Blueprint for Growth research team dives into the newest data to update our research on enrollment trends in the graduate and online markets. (You’d think it was Christmas morning by how excited we data-obsessed researchers are to explore these new figures every year). Now, we’re thrilled to share our latest research and findings with you. Keep reading for our newest insights into the state of the graduate and online space.

1. Graduate enrollments are returning to a long-term growth trend

Each year, we begin by looking at the big picture: how did total graduate enrollment change this year compared to last? The pandemic and associated recession injected a lot of volatility into graduate enrollments over the past few years. Based on trends during other recessionary periods—booms in graduate enrollment followed by a slowdown—we had anticipated that graduate enrollments in 2023 might continue to decline as they had in 2022. But the National Student Clearinghouse estimates that graduate enrollment grew by 0.6% from 2022 to 2023. This suggests that the “post-boom hangover” is over.  This return to a more normal growth-rate environment is good news for the many institutions looking to increase graduate headcount and revenue.

Make the case for investment in grad growth on your campus

There are several reasons we suspect this is true: the first is that the COVID recession and recovery were intense but short-lived compared to the Great Recession. The second element is how the proliferation and wider acceptance of online degrees opened up graduate education opportunities to a broader audience.

How Ball State created a long-term online enrollment strategy to sustain COVID-era growth

2. Domestic grad enrollments fell sharply in 2022

National Student Clearinghouse data allows us a glimpse at the 2023 trends. However, for greater detail into race, ethnicity, and origin, the Fall 2022 enrollment data from IPEDS remain our most current graduate enrollment statistics. This data shows that while international enrollments rebounded, domestic enrollments fell sharply between 2021 to 2022.This decline follows the surge of domestic enrollments in 2020 and 2021 driven by the pandemic, mirroring similar trends seen in previous recessions—a bit of a “hangover” in graduate enrollments.

Why it’s so hard to find enough domestic leads for online graduate programs

Nearly all of this decline is due to 86K fewer white students enrolling in graduate studies. Enrollments from Hispanic and Black students also fell, but less dramatically (-89 and -11,219 respectively). Asian student enrollment increased, albeit slightly (+922). It’s unclear what’s behind this sharp divergence in graduate enrollment across race and ethnicity.

3. Established brands are dominating the online space

In the past, newer brands like Southern New Hampshire University, Western Governors, and Grand Canyon University dominated the online market. These schools remain the largest players, but as online education becomes more mainstream, we’ve seen institutions with brands much more associated with brick-and-mortar, on-campus education account for a rapidly rising share of online graduate enrollments.

In fall 2022, one in twelve online graduate students now attend what we’ve termed the “new online giants” (think schools like Georgia Tech, Arizona State, Purdue Global, and even the University of Illinois). Growth in online graduate enrollment grew 11x the pace that those original online leaders achieved between 2019 and 2022.

Another trend we’re continuing to watch is the extent to which students are pursuing online education at institutions out-of-state. This year, the “online giants” referenced earlier continued to enroll the vast majority of their students from out of state.

There’s more research where this came from, including insight into which liberal arts programs are seeing the greatest changes in grad enrollment, the impact of computer science and related fields on grad enrollment overall, and generational changes in the students pursuing graduate education. My team and I look forward to sharing more of our research with you in upcoming webinars or one-off for your school.