The big bets that actually drive online enrollment growth
Over the past several years, I’ve had countless conversations with presidents, provosts, and enrollment leaders who all say some version of the same thing: “We know we need to grow online—we’re just not sure how big to go, or how to get there.” And across institution types, I routinely hear goals to double, triple, or even quadruple online enrollment over the next three to five years.
What concerns me is not the scale of these ambitions, but how often they are disconnected from the realities of today’s market. In many cases, growth targets are set before institutions have a clear plan for what can actually change—strategically, academically, operationally, and financially—to meet them.
We need to basically grow for growth’s sake, but we aren’t provided with the resources to support that growth.
Head of PCO unit
To make sense of what meaningful online growth looks like in today’s environment, our Professional and Adult Education research team broke this challenge into three stages: first, achieving true product-market fit; second, overcoming plateaus in growth; and finally, adopting the different-in-kind practices required to scale. Read on for a preview of our findings.
Designing online programs that adult learners will choose
For institutions seeking online growth, the first hurdle is designing programs and experiences that adult learners will actually choose in a competitive landscape.
Most institutions are already familiar with the baseline expectations adult learners bring to online education: multiple start dates, streamlined admissions, and a clear return on investment. But increasingly, these are simply the price of entry as adult learners’ expectations continue to evolve (and we track these changes closely via our annual adult learner surveys). Many higher ed leaders I’ve spoken to have big online growth goals but still haven’t fully implemented these essential structures. In this crowded market, these best practices are simply table stakes, and institutions serious about online growth must prioritize these structural and process changes as part of their growth strategy. Institutions that underinvest here rarely get a second look from prospects.
We also know that adult learners compare programs quickly. Long application processes, confusing admissions requirements, unclear information about program cost, or delayed responses from your team might cause them to remove your program from their consideration set. Even modest reductions in time-to-admission can contribute to application and enrollment growth.
Betting on the right programs
Too often, new online programs are launched based on internal enthusiasm (think of that one program started by a faculty member who was adamant it would grow quickly) rather than external demand. I’ve seen well-intentioned programs underperform because demand was overestimated, costs were underestimated, or ramp-up timelines were unrealistic.
Sustainable growth requires disciplined bets. In our latest research, we examine how institutions evaluate these bets across demand, cost structure, and time-to-scale—and where schools most often miscalculate. The most successful bets had three things in common: the institutions launched programs aligned with durable labor market demand, considered how individual programs fit into a broader portfolio, and resisted the urge to over-specialize too early.
In fact, some of the most successful institutions we profiled in our research test demand through smaller, faster experiments, like certificates, pilot courses, or noncredit offerings, before making large investments. These approaches are lower risk than launching a full online master’s, for example, and create a clearer line of sight between market need and institutional strategy.
Overcoming plateaus in online enrollment growth
Our research team also looked at institutions that experienced early momentum with an online program, only to see that growth slow soon thereafter.
When growth stalls, the instinct is often to market harder or add more features. But one of the most fatal flaws we saw is that online programs often market the same attributes: expert faculty, flexibility, academic support. From a student’s perspective, these claims blur together; they don’t help students choose between your institution and the hundreds of other online program options available to them.
In our work with partner institutions, we see that true differentiation is often the missing ingredient once early growth momentum fades. Institutions that break through plateaus are those that make deliberate choices about who they serve best and why. They identify where their academic strengths, services, and partnerships align in ways competitors cannot easily replicate.
Making smart marketing decisions and investments
Enrollment plateaus are also a signal that broad, unfocused marketing is no longer effective. National campaigns are expensive and risky, particularly for institutions without the scale or brand recognition to compete head-to-head with the largest providers (the so-called “online giants”).
Increasingly, institutions are finding success by narrowing their geographic focus, considering the right labor market, student, and enrollment data, and using targeted digital strategies to reach high-intent prospects. With marketing budgets tight, the goal is to make every dollar work harder by prioritizing regions, programs, and audiences where institutions have a credible competitive advantage.
Competing on price—without racing to the bottom
Many leaders (understandably) worry that competing means racing to the bottom on price. But in reality, students tend to compare programs within price bands, not across them. Lowering price alone rarely pulls students away from high-cost, elite institutions. Instead, it intensifies competition among similarly priced peers.
Institutions that use pricing strategically account for competition, reputation, and student demographics. They recognize that price sensitivity varies by audience and that internal consistency across programs matters less to students than leaders often assume. When pricing decisions are grounded in how students actually make enrollment choices, institutions are better positioned to grow without undermining long-term sustainability.
Expanding access without compromising on quality
Scaling online growth requires institutions to rethink access. Several of the most compelling examples surfaced through our research occurred when leaders were willing to pilot new pathways before scaling them institution-wide.
Some institutions are navigating this tension through performance-based approaches that allow students to prove readiness through coursework rather than credentials alone. When designed carefully, these models expand access, improve retention, and protect academic integrity. They also allow institutions to welcome more learners into the funnel without overwhelming admissions staff.
Online growth in today’s market is no longer about replicating early success stories or chasing incremental gains. This blog only scratches the surface of a much deeper body of research exploring how institutions can make—and sustain—online big bets. Institutions willing to make these big bets thoughtfully and intentionally will be the ones best positioned to thrive in the years ahead.
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