How the new administration may impact graduate enrollment
January 2, 2025, By Val Fox, Senior Director and Principal, Adult Learner Recruitment
With every presidential election cycle, education—both K-12 and higher ed—is increasingly in the spotlight. And from funding to regulations, seemingly every component of our educational system is up for debate. The reverberations of a new administration are felt locally, regionally, nationally, and certainly internationally. While there is still much we don’t know about how Trump’s campaign promises will play out, there is no question that all facets of the education sector, including graduate education, will be impacted.
Over the last few weeks, I’ve spoken with dozens of administrators at conferences and at our partner institutions, all wondering, anticipating, table-top planning, and predicting what is ahead. Here’s a summary of those conversations.
1. Federal budget cuts shift financial burden to colleges and universities
On the campaign trail, President Trump and his surrogates spoke often about reducing the size of government and amount of government spending—and higher ed is no exception. While states provide most public university funding, Trump’s proposed tax increases on university endowments and cuts to research funding would place more pressure on colleges and universities. And, as I wrote recently, institutions in well-resourced states may not see huge federal budget changes, while universities in other states will likely face budgetary constraints that challenge affordability and accessibility.
Far-reaching reductions in emphasis on diversity, equity, and inclusion programs could affect funding for universities that are pursuing federal grants aimed at promoting diversity or serving underrepresented populations.
2. International enrollments may drop due to tightening borders and increased risks
More than 502,000 international students enrolled in US graduate programs in 2023, a record-breaking increase from 467,000 students the year prior. Amid persistent declines in domestic enrollment, this spike in international enrollment has been welcome news for many institutions. But policies enacted during President Trump’s first administration, and rhetoric during the 2024 election cycle about DACA and immigration, “America First Policies” (that may limit visa access for international students to both come and stay in the US) renew concerns about the future of international enrollment and amplify pressure to grow domestic enrollments.
Is tepid growth the new normal in graduate enrollment?
One of the biggest causes of concern is potential restrictions to the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program. The number of students on OPT reached a record high in the 2023-24 academic year as a large influx of students from India participated in the program. But potential restrictions to this program may drive many international students away from pursuing education in the US. This is especially concerning for STEM-designated programs, which offer students an additional year to live and work in the US after graduation. There is also concern that tariffs may impact the Chinese economy, which would limit economic growth and thus stymie demand for US education, and potentially throw this once-reliable market into flux.
There are some signs of optimism for international enrollments, however. Canada, the UK, and Australia have all placed recent caps on foreign visas and enrollments, which could help the US to maintain international market share. But if safety becomes a concern for certain international populations, they may choose sunnier shores over US institutions. We’ve heard from many institutions issuing alerts to their traveling staff and international students to get to the US prior to January 20th “just in case.”
Explore how international student preferences differ from domestic students’
More US students may look for international options
As I mentioned—and as you’re likely experiencing firsthand—there is significant and growing pressure to shore up domestic enrollments. But there are some early indicators that a growing share of domestic students are looking to study outside of the US in both short- and long-term programs. For example, StudyPortals reported a spike in US students searching for on-campus programs outside of the US in the hours following the election.
Of course, it remains to be seen if this trend will continue as we move further away from the election. But growing uncertainty about the domestic market—at a time when schools will need to double down on their domestic recruitment strategies—is troubling for many enrollment leaders.
3. A relaxed federal regulatory environment shifts OPM and for-profit college oversight to states
Under the Trump administration, regulatory oversight of OPMs will likely be left up to the states, following Minnesota’s lead. While this could create temporary relief for OPMs, it won’t solve the financial crises many OPMs have faced. And institutions of all kinds continue to express concern about OPMs, from lengthy and inflexible contract terms to unrealized returns on investment.
-
77%
of online and graduate enrollment leaders surveyed in fall 2024, before the election, said they are “very concerned or somewhat concerned” about the OPM landscape
If Trump’s second administration is like his first, we can also expect that for-profit colleges—many of which continue to dominate the online graduate market—will benefit from relaxed regulations. During Trump’s first administration, Former Secretary DeVos rolled back oversights aimed at for-profit colleges, namely the Obama-era gainful employment rule.
These are just a few of the anticipated impacts of the new administration on graduate enrollment. Growing enrollment in this ever-changing market is always challenging. But expected federal budget cuts, declines in international enrollment, and a more relaxed regulatory environment pose new questions and concerns for leaders across higher education.
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