The top five undergraduate programs to launch online

Author’s note: This blog post has been updated to include new degree completion and labor market data.

Even before COVID-19 forced classes online, we knew student demand for online bachelor’s degrees, coupled with a favorable competitive landscape, presented an opportunity for online program development and enrollment growth.

Between the 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 academic years, online bachelor’s degree completions increased while in-person completions decreased. And in the same period, student demand for online bachelor’s degrees grew over 260% faster than the number of institutions offering them. Notably, adult degree completers helped accelerate this demand growth, as this group is more likely to enroll in fully online programs than their traditional undergraduate peers.

LEARN MORE ABOUT RECRUITING ADULT DEGREE COMPLETERS

But we also know the market for four-year degree completions is concentrated at the top. This is especially true when it comes to completions among adult undergraduates, with the largest 20% of institutions capturing over 79% of completions from undergraduates 25 or older. For comparison, the largest 20 percent of institutions held only 73% of the market of undergraduates under the age of 25.

As a result, schools eager to offer online undergraduate programs should prioritize developing programs with strong student demand but in fields with less market concentration. With this criteria in mind, our researchers took a look at which bachelor’s degree programs have the highest potential for growth. Here’s what we learned.

Research Methodology

EAB analyzed all reported distance delivery completions for bachelor’s degree programs between the 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 academic years to evaluate student demand and to assess the competitive landscape for each of these majors. Our researchers counted all students graduating from a 100% online program in the United States within that timeframe.

Programs with strong increases in completions and few dominant competitors offer best potential.

First, we identified the 15 bachelor’s-level programs with the highest increases in student demand between the 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 academic years based on the number of reported distance delivery completions:

Programs with the highest student demand

• Registered Nursing
• Business Administration and Management
• Psychology
• Accounting
• Liberal Arts and Sciences
• Health Care Administration and Management
• Marketing/Marketing Management
• Elementary Education and Teaching
• Finance
• Sociology
• Computer and Information Systems Security
• Information Science
• Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies
• Social Work
• Biology

From there, we assessed the competitive landscape for each of these 15 majors. We looked at whether there were clear winners in these markets, with reported degree completions heavily concentrated in the top 20% of institutions. We also determined whether there was significant growth in the number of new competitors annually, risking growth in new programs outpacing student demand.

Based on their diffuse markets and slower competitor growth, we identified five programs that present the strongest opportunity for institutions to offer online:

1. Registered Nursing
2. Sociology
3. Social Work
4. Health Care Administration and Management
5. Accounting

In addition to high student demand, the number of students competing online undergraduate programs in these areas grew relatively slowly in recent years. And when ranked against all 15 of the programs we identified initially, the institutional leaders in most of these five respective fields captured low relative market share. This indicates a favorable competitive landscape with low market domination, where degree completions are not heavily concentrated at only a few institutions.

While national completions provide insight into demand for programs, regional employer demand for program graduates—as well as market concentration in your institution’s regional market—should also be considered.

Favorable competitive landscape

• Registered Nursing
• Sociology
• Social Work
• Health Care Administration and Management
• Accounting

Unfavorable competitive landscape

Existing market domination

• Information Science
• Computer and Information Systems Security
• Elementary Education and Teaching
• Biology
• Accounting*

*Despite the top 20% of competitors holding 75.29% of the market, programs on average report healthy class sizes.

High relative competition

• Biology
• Liberal Arts and Sciences
• Psychology
• Business Administration and Management

What about adult degree completers?

While the degree completions data we analyzed includes both traditional undergrads as well as adult degree completers—or students 25 or older reenrolled to earn an undergraduate degree—we wanted to take a closer look at the programs of greatest interest to adult degree completers in particular. That’s because, during the Great Recession, over 1.2 million adults 25 and up enrolled in undergraduate programs. And as our researchers uncovered, almost all of this recession-era increase came from adult degree completers. But despite the spike in enrollment among adult degree completers, many four-year public and private non-profit institutions failed to benefit, with more enrollments going to community colleges and for-profit institutions.

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found that when compared to all undergraduates, adult degree completers were more likely to earn bachelor’s degrees in business, management and liberal arts, and the humanities. Institutions interested in serving adult degree completers should prioritize the development of these programs online, given many degree completers’ preference for online education.