The international enrollment shifts we predicted are worsening

Last summer, my friend and colleague Todd Heilman wrote about a challenge beginning to appear across graduate and adult enrollment: a shrinking international student pipeline colliding with mounting pressure on domestic recruitment. The argument was that institutions would need to move fast to adapt to a more competitive and constrained market.

Over the past several months, the Appily Advance team has continued tracking international enrollment trends, student demand, and institutional outcomes. Now, with more data in hand, we revisited our original analysis to understand: How has the decline in international demand changed the competitive landscape? 

In short: the trends we flagged materialized. And, in many cases, they actually intensified.

1. International enrollment declined more sharply than projected

In our original analysis, we cited NAFSA’s projected annual declines of 10-15% in international graduate enrollment and noted that postgraduate interest in U.S. study had already dropped 40% in early 2025. Those numbers felt alarming at the time, but they turned out to be conservative.

According to NAFSA, new international graduate enrollment ultimately fell by around 17%. And global student interest in studying in the U.S. bottomed out at a 61% decline from January to September. For many programs, the international student pipeline can no longer be treated as a reliable fallback for potential enrollment gaps. The STEM space is being hit particularly hard: overall computer science graduate enrollment is down 14%. 62% of computer science programs report enrollment declines, and some institutions are seeing international enrollment drops of nearly 30% year-over-year.

2. Cost concerns remain one of domestic students’ biggest barriers to enrollment

If our hope was that domestic demand would fill the gap left by international students, the reality has been more complicated.

EAB research finds that cost remains the single largest barrier for prospective graduate and adult learners. Nearly 40% of domestic students continue to cite program cost as their primary obstacle, with that number creeping up three percentage points year-over-year. This finding is supported by other similar ones:

• The share of students actively seeking cost information on .edu sites rose from 49% to 51%.
• Students’ overall importance rating for cost-related factors increased from 4.26 to 4.34 on a five-point scale.

These aren’t dramatic jumps, but the direction is consistent: domestic students are becoming more cost-conscious. Programs that do not make financial aid and ROI information easy to find are losing the opportunity to engage students by assuaging their cost fears.

3. Students are applying more broadly, making every seat harder to win

The number of applications graduate students submit has shifted in both domestic and international markets. In 2024, domestic graduate students submitted just 3.08 applications on average, compared to 4.72 for international graduate students. Updated EAB figures show both numbers have climbed: domestic students now average 3.64 applications, while international students submit an average of over 6 applications each.

Some implications of this are positive, but others are concerning. More domestic applications is a small win for top-of-funnel volume, since students are exploring more broadly. 

But the sharp jump in international applications tells a different story: students still pursuing U.S. graduate study may be navigating uncertainty about visa approvals and long-term prospects by casting wide nets. For institutions still relying on international pipelines, yield rates may be more difficult to predict. And those who have a smaller international population may not feel a positive impact from the jump in international applications whatsoever.

4. The impact of international enrollment declines isn’t evenly distributed

Last year, our team predicted that declining international enrollment would impact all institutions, just not all in the same way. That distinction has become even clearer and more consequential.

While most institutions are absorbing real international enrollment losses, highly selective universities—particularly Ivy League schools—have largely maintained or grown their international populations. That leaves regional universities and less selective institutions competing on two fronts at the same time: for the remaining international students, and for a domestic audience that is cost-sensitive and increasingly selective.

What this means for enrollment leaders

A shrinking international pipeline has redistributed and intensified competition. And domestic demand alone hasn’t been a guaranteed backfill, especially with domestic students’ persistent cost concerns. 

Our recommendations haven’t changed, but the urgency behind them has:

• Know your new competitor set, and revisit it regularly. Schools that weren’t competing for your domestic students a year ago may be now. As selective institutions pivot more of their recruitment efforts toward domestic audiences, and as online giants continue to spend millions to grab mindshare, your competitive landscape has expanded. Start by mapping which competitor programs are targeting the same student profiles you are, study how they’re positioning their value and outcomes, and make sure your messaging stands apart.
• Make cost and ROI central to your messaging. This means putting tuition, fees, and financial aid information front and center on your program pages, not buried in an FAQ. It’s also key to lead with concrete outcomes, such as salary data, employer partnerships, and time-to-completion information. Lastly, build a value proposition that speaks directly to the cost-conscious, career-focused student. Authenticity matters here. Student and alumni testimonials that speak honestly about the ROI from your program can carry more weight than institutional claims alone.
• Diversify your lead sources and prioritize high-intent leads to maximize your top-of-funnel volume and conversion. Blend traditional channels like organic search and paid ads with emerging ones such as student search platforms. Lean into populations already familiar with your institution: current undergraduates, recent graduates, and alumni. Finally, prioritize leads who are actively searching for programs like yours. Incorporating high-intent lead sources such as Appily Advance can put your program in front of students who are already in the market, at the moment they’re making decisions.

The market has undeniably become more complex over the last year. Institutions that plan for this as the new normal will be better positioned for what comes next.

Beth Donaldson

Managing Director, Consulting Services

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