What’s driving graduate STEM enrollment declines and how programs can adapt

Graduate STEM programs have historically been one of the most reliable areas of enrollment growth. Strong career outcomes, consistent international demand, and a clear value proposition made these programs feel relatively stable, even when other areas weren’t.

That stability is starting to shift. Across institutions, leaders are seeing early signs of pressure: international enrollment is declining, students are moving through their search process faster and more independently, and even computer science—long considered a dependable driver of growth—is beginning to soften.

None of this means demand has disappeared. But it does mean the conditions that supported growth over the last decade are changing, and many programs are having to adjust in real time.Below are three trends we’re seeing most often in conversations with STEM enrollment leaders, along with what they may mean for your strategy.

1. International graduate enrollment is declining

For many institutions, international students have been a primary source of graduate STEM enrollment growth. That pipeline is now under pressure. Visa restrictions, geopolitical uncertainty, and safety concerns are contributing to a measurable decline, with international graduate enrollment down 12% from 2025 to 2026. In STEM programs, that impact is even more pronounced.

Domestic demand is simultaneously shrinking. Programs that have relied heavily on international enrollment are now competing for a smaller and more fragmented domestic pool, and enrollment leaders are left to quickly adjust.

2. AI is accelerating how students search and decide

Prospective STEM students are moving faster and sharing less throughout the search process.

Many now complete their program search in six months or fewer. At the same time, more than half prefer to research independently before ever engaging with an institution. AI is accelerating both trends. 

Students are using tools like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini to compare programs, narrow options, and make decisions before entering a traditional enrollment funnel. By the time they submit an inquiry, they may already have a clear sense of where they want to go.

This is not entirely new—what is new is the speed and scale. Usage of AI tools in program search has grown year over year, and with 80% of graduate students already operating as “stealth shoppers,” this behavior is becoming harder to track and influence.

For enrollment teams, this raises a different kind of challenge: being visible and relevant before a student ever reaches out.

3. Computer science enrollment is softening

Computer science has long been one of the most dependable enrollment drivers in STEM. However, that’s beginning to change. Enrollment in computer and information science graduate programs declined in 2025, reflecting broader shifts in the job market. Entry-level roles are becoming more automated, and job postings in the field have dropped in recent years.

At the same time, demand is shifting, not disappearing. Job postings for professionals with AI and cybersecurity skills are growing quickly, with postings referencing AI-specific skills growing 116% from 2024 to 2025. In addition, many industries outside of tech are now seeking applicants with specialized-high impact tech skills. 

How graduate STEM programs can adapt their recruitment strategy

None of these trends are easy to navigate, but they are not insurmountable. Across institutions, we are seeing a few consistent adjustments begin to take shape.

Rebuild and diversify your top-of-funnel

Programs that rely heavily on a single source of demand, especially international sources, are more exposed to market shifts. A broader mix of lead sources, including high-intent channels like Appily Advance, can create a more stable foundation and surface students who may not be reachable through traditional channels.

Get in front of students earlier

Many students are making key decisions before they ever submit an inquiry. Programs that invest in early visibility are more likely to make it onto a student’s shortlist in the first place.

Rethink your STEM value proposition

The “guaranteed tech job” narrative is less convincing than it once was. Students are looking for programs that clearly connect to evolving career paths, including AI fluency and cross-sector applications.

Personalize outreach for a more selective audience

Students are applying to fewer programs and making decisions more quickly. Generic communication is easier to ignore. Programs that tailor outreach to individual interests and timelines are better positioned to stand out.

The market is shifting. Is your strategy?

STEM programs are still in demand. But the way students find, evaluate, and choose those programs is changing.

The programs that will continue to grow are not necessarily the ones with the strongest historical pipelines. They’re the ones that adapt early, stay visible throughout the search process, and build a more resilient and diversified approach to enrollment.

Mary Virginia Spencer

Director, Partner Development

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